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Vital Election News

Vodkapundit, who will be drunkblogging it, has your own printable color-in-the-states electoral map. 

OK, got your crayons? Here’s some really important news … or just more noise. You decide whether it helps you with your coloring. We’ll start with the AP on how Obama wins the popular vote and loses the election: 

Sounds like fun, right? … Extended McCain bash:

WASHINGTON – It’s a nightmare scenario for Democrats — their nominee Barack Obama winning the popular vote while Republican John McCain ekes out an Electoral College victory. Sure, McCain trails in every recent national poll. Sure, surveys show that Obama leads in the race to reach the requisite 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.

Sure, chances of Republicans retaining the White House are remote.

Back up that campaign bus up a sec. Remote? As in Obama landslide in the offing? Could happen I suppose. It’s a bit of a climb out along the limb as a definite statement for a reporter to be making, though. Liz Sidoti, the AP and a lot of other people who have been describing the statistical stalemate of the past month as “McCain sliding in the polls” will look like dopes if their guy doesn’t win.  OK, OK, they already look like dopes. Wait up, next graph:

But some last-minute state polls show the GOP nominee closing the gap in key states — Republican turf of Virginia, Florida and Ohio among them, and Democratic-leaning Pennsylvania, too.

If the tightening polls are correct and undecided voters in those states break McCain’s way — both big ifs — that could make for a repeat of the 2000 heartbreaker for Democrats that gave Republicans the White House.

OK, apparently it got somewhat less remote between graphs two and three. Sort of like the Bush wins got less remote somewhere between the polling and the actual voting in 2000 and 2004. I think we can safely exit this piece of crap article now. No … not before this extended fellation:

Enthusiastic by all measures, the Illinois senator’s Democratic base was expected to run up the score in liberal bastions of party strongholds such as New York and California,.

McCain faces a steep hurdle.

… Obama’s team is awash in confidence.

… True, Democrats have been fired up all year.

True, Republicans haven’t been.

True, Obama and McCain have been faring about even among independent voters.

But there are signs that the GOP’s conservative base has rallied in the final stretch and these voters usually turn out in droves, even if lukewarm on the candidate …

I’d say it was the Beltway insiders who were lukewarm, when not, like much of the press, openly hostile. It was a little hard seeing the GOP enthusiasm through all the Palin bashing and Obama adoration, though.

Thanks, Drudge, for pointing us to that grudging acknowledgement that it ain’t over till it’s over, and can go anyway. Meanwhile, also compliments of Drudge, a McCain memo re exit polls. Useful reading for everyone who thinks Mccain’s chances are “remote.”

Here are the key points to keep in mind when the exit poll data starts being leaked:

1. Historically, exit polls have tended to overstate the Democratic vote.

2. The exit polls are likely to overstate the Obama vote because Obama voters are more likely to participate in the exit poll.

3. The exit polls have tended to skew most Democratic in years where there is high turnout and high vote interest like in 1992 and 2004.

4. It is not just the national exit poll that skews Democratic, but each of the state exit polls also suffers from the same Democratic leanings.

5. The results of the exit polls are also influenced by the demographics of the voters who conduct the exit polls.

After the 2004 election, the National Election Pool completed a study investigating why the exit polls that year showed John Kerry over performing 5.5 net points better than the actual results showed him to have done. Their conclusion was that the primary reason the exit polls was that Kerry voters and Democrats were more likely to participate in the exit polls.

“Our investigation of the differences between the exit poll estimates and the actual vote count point to one primary reason: in a number of precincts a higher than average Within Precinct Error most likely due to Kerry voters participating in the exit polls at a higher rate than Bush voters. There has been partisan overstatements in previous elections, more often overstating the Democrat, but occasionally overstating the Republican.

We believe that this will hold true this year. The recent Fox News survey showed that 46% of Obama voters said they were very likely to participate in the exit polls, while just 35% of McCain supporters are.    

Well, I live in Massachusetts. I enjoy announcing my leanings loudly in mixed company. But geez … you don’t think this whole poll thing might horrendously skewed, do you?

Gateway notes Obama’s 7 percent history. The average margin by which exit polls overstated his actual vote. Gateway also has a campaign ditty.

The Anchoress with a battle cry: Remember the Panhandle!

Good Lord! If Glenn Reynolds has gone Obamist, then all is lost! Oh … it’s just that dispassion thing again. No worries, Glenn, you may lack fire but a lot of other things could be burning soon.

Surber’s got your essential Election Eve scoreboard. Surber notes Grandma Dunham departed this vale of tears in time for the Election Day news cycle and offers his sympathies and a point to Obama. I offer my sympathies and note that she hung on seven months after he threw her under the bus.

OK, this won’t help you fill in your map, but it is … colorful. Fox: Biden on “girl-boys” and “girl-girls.” I think it’s meant to be wholesome Walton family stuff, but it’s more weird Biden.

The latest was about his sister, Val, his wife Jill, and Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill, who introduced the Bidens at the rally of 1,100 people in the gym at Longview Community College.

Biden called his sister a “girl-boy,” meaning a tomboy, and then explained that girl-boys are softer than “girl-girls.”

…

“My sister is smart, runs every one of my campaigns; is beautiful; graduated with honors from college; is homecoming queen. But she’s a … she is what I call a ‘girl-boy’ growing up, you know what I mean?”

“And I tell you what? Girl-girls are tougher than girl-boys,” he said. “But there’s one important thing I noticed.The great thing about marrying into a family with five sisters, there’s always one that loves you. ‘Cause you can count on splitting them a bit. You know what I mean?

“I shouldn’t be going off like this, but — hey, folks, 37 more hours, 37 more hours,” he then said.

No, please, go on. It’s either 37 more hours or four more years, and now that I think of it, that’s one thing to look forward to. Joe Biden unplugged.

All the way around ABC’s “This Week” Roundtable, they see an Obama sweep. So does Rove.

Over at Fox, Father Jonathan Morris, “This election will be closer than they think.”

1) According to varied professional sources with whom I have spoken, there exists a proportionally high number of potential voters who are refusing to be polled or express their opinion publicly. In a historic, high-octane race like 2008, I believe there are more reasons for a McCain supporter to stay silent than for an Obama supporter. It is understandable to imagine McCain supporters fearing labels such as “racist,” “homophobe,” “single-issue-voter,” “warmonger,” or “against change,” even if the voter is none of these.

But you’ll want to go there to check out his weird comments section before Fox kills that stuff out.

Another quarter heard from. via Washington Wire, Mark Salter is smiling:

You know it’s a big day on the McCain campaign when Mark Salter is smiling.

The senior aide to John McCain, known for his gruff demeanor, was practically giddy this morning on the campaign plane. He was cracking jokes with reporters and describing an optimistic atmosphere surrounding McCain.

“We feel like we’ve been saying all week. We’re well within the margin or on top in all these battlegrounds,” Salter said. “We got a real good shot at catching the guy.”

…

Salter, the tempo of his voice increasing with each word, smiled as he described his own mood. “A little hard getting out of bed,” he said, quickly adding: “But eight cups of coffee and a half a pack of cigarettes later, I’m feeling pretty good myself.”

OK, either he knows something or the sleep deprivation, caffeine and nicotine are all firing at the same time.

And we’ll close with RCP’s Reid Wilson, 15 Races to Watch.

With thanks to RCP, Memeorandum and a bunch of my blogging pals on the roundup.

Topics: pols

  Posted by Jules Crittenden at 10:49 pm on Monday, November 3, 2008

2 Responses to “Vital Election News”

1. Baby M Says:
   November 4th, 2008 at 8:32 am

   I hope you (and Mark Salter) are right, Jules.

   I would also say to my fellow citizens: It may be that this thing is already decided, it may be an Obama landslide, your vote may not count for much against ACORN’s legion of dead and fictitious registrants . . . or it might not be so. Bush won Florida by 537 votes in 2000. My father was a municipal judge in Ohio; he won his first race by 0.5 votes per precinct.

   If you give up in despair and do not vote, it is 100% certain that your vote will count for nothing.

   Therefore, VOTE.

2. RebeccaH Says:
   November 4th, 2008 at 12:11 pm

   If nothing else, vote because that gives you the right to complain if your man doesn’t win. If you don’t vote, then you have no such right.

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