Cheap Nukes
Then there’s that other thing repressive governments do when faced with financial woes and internal threats … change the subject. NYT, Iran said to have enough for one nuke:
Iran has now produced roughly enough nuclear material to make, with added purification, a single atom bomb, according to nuclear experts analyzing the latest report from global atomic inspectors.
The figures detailing Iran’s progress were contained in a routine update on Wednesday from the International Atomic Eenergy Agency, which has been conducting inspections of the country’s main nuclear plant at Natanz. The report concluded that as of early this month, Iran had made 630 kilograms, or about 1,390 pounds, of low-enriched uranium.
Several experts said that was enough for a bomb, but they cautioned that the milestone was mostly symbolic, because Iran would have to take additional steps. Not only would it have to breach its international agreements and kick out the inspectors, but it would also have to further purify the fuel and put it into a warhead design — a technical advance that Western experts are unsure Iran has yet achieved.
“They clearly have enough material for a bomb,” said Richard L. Garwin, a top nuclear physicist who helped invent the hydrogen bomb and has advised Washington for decades. “They know how to do the enrichment. Whether they know how to design a bomb, well, that’s another matter.”
Iran insists that it wants only to fuel reactors for nuclear power. But many Western nations, led by the United States, suspect that its real goal is to gain the ability to make nuclear weapons.
While some Iranian officials have threatened to bar inspectors in the past, the country has made no such moves, and many experts inside the Bush administration and the I.A.E.A. believe it will avoid the risk of attempting “nuclear breakout” until it possessed a larger uranium supply.
Even so, for President-elect Barack Obama, the report underscores the magnitude of the problem that he will inherit Jan. 20: an Iranian nuclear program that has not only solved many technical problems of uranium enrichment, but that can also now credibly claim to possess enough material to make a weapon if negotiations with Europe and the United States break down.
George Bush didn’t really get to choose what kind of president he wanted to be, just what kind of war president he wanted to be. Obama, no big surprise to anyone but him and 52 percent of American voters, is in the same boat. Economic woes cited in the prior post, Cheap Oil, may create an opportunity for a Korean solution. Bribe the Iranians out of it. But the same problem still holds. As long as you have a rotten regime that says one thing and does another, you can’t trust the, and to the extent to which it is a fix, it will only ever be a temporary one.
Obama is already showing himself to be a singularly gutless leader, between the uninspired Biden pick and the raids on the Clinton White House. Just as he wants the Clintons to govern for him, he may expect the Israelis to solve his problems. JPost: “We won’t let Iran go nuclear.”
Meanwhile, the erstwhile loyal opposition, now looking forward to having their guy in power, poo-poos Iranian nuke worrywarts. No big deal. They haven’t fired it yet.
Posted by Jules Crittenden at 10:03 am on Thursday, November 20, 2008
5 Responses to “Cheap Nukes”
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November 20th, 2008 at 10:29 am
I would really like to hope he would rise to the occasion, but so far there is no evidence of that.
His “going in” position - and that of his foreign policy advisers - is that you can take the Iranians, Russians, North Koreans [insert dictatorship of choice here], at their word.
History shows that you cannot. History also shows Obama is historically illiterate.
I can’t believe American Jews went for Obama in the numbers they did. When the Iranian mushroom cloud comes, it’s going to appear over Tel Aviv first. You would have expected some solidarity there but I guess not.
November 20th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
Obama may expect the Israelis to solve his problems, but he is frighteningly misguided if he does. When and if the Middle East explodes again, America and Obama’s presidency will be tested in ways some of us knew enough to dread.
November 20th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
I agree with you, Rebecca. Although I think it’s a matter of when, not if.
And I agree with you, Sean–on all points.
The military analyses I’ve read seem to say that a limited air strike will not be sufficient. My understanding is that the facilities are widely dispersed, including among the populace, with some far underground. Even from a strictly military perspective, it is does not seem feasible for Israel to do this alone. It would take too long and steps could be taken against them before the job was complete.
There is also the risk that an attack will bring together the various factions within Iran. It is in our interest to see them split apart. The best option for everyone would be decapitation from internal or seemingly internal sources, right?
The thing I find most maddening is the persistence of the illusion that Iran, Syria, and Lebanon are normal countries worthy of respect. Iran is at war with us, via their proxies, and their strategy is to pretend otherwise. Why are we helping them pretend?! I have a hard time making sense of that.
My working theory has been that Bush has been betting Iran would eventually implode and the democracy movement there would take hold. I assume we have special operations in there trying to help out with that, and that so does Israel. There have been a number of missing persons lately and a high-profile turncoat a while back. I think the long-term plan has been that Free Iraq would find its footing, start trading with its neighbors, and create a domino effect for democracy.
I believe in that long-term vision, so I am very upset at the possibility (probability?) that Obama is going to squander the efforts toward that end. I am trying to wait and see what he really does, but the signs look grim. It sounds like he really does look to Brzezinski on this stuff, which chills me to the bone.
November 20th, 2008 at 2:24 pm
[...] Jules Crittenden Obama is already showing himself to be a singularly gutless leader, between the uninspired Biden pick and the raids on the Clinton White House. Just as he wants the Clintons to govern for him, he may expect the Israelis to solve his problems. JPost: “We won’t let Iran go nuclear.” [...]
November 20th, 2008 at 2:26 pm
[...] Jules Crittenden Obama is already showing himself to be a singularly gutless leader, between the uninspired Biden pick and the raids on the Clinton White House. Just as he wants the Clintons to govern for him, he may expect the Israelis to solve his problems. JPost: “We won’t let Iran go nuclear.” [...]