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Great News!

According to this U.S. intellgence assessment, United States influence in the world won’t entirely go down the toilet under Obama. It will take until 2025. Let’s see, that’s four administrations. We’re going to have Democrats that long? Anyway, guess who we get to share with then in a “multi-polar” world. Reuters:

WASHINGTON, Nov 20 (Reuters) - U.S. economic and political clout will decline over the next two decades and the world will be more dangerous, with food and water scarce and advanced weapons plentiful, U.S. spy agencies projected on Thursday.

The National Intelligence Council analysis “Global Trends 2025″ also said the current financial crisis on Wall Street is just the first phase of a global economic reordering.

The U.S. dollar’s role as the world’s major currency would weaken to become a “first among equals,” the report said.

The outlook is intended to inform U.S. President-elect Barack Obama of factors that will influence global events. It is based on a year-long global survey of experts and trends by U.S. intelligence analysts.

“The next 20 years of transition to a new system are fraught with risks,” said the report, which was more pessimistic about U.S. influence and the potential for conflict than the last outlook for 2020.

Thomas Fingar, chairman of the intelligence council and deputy national director of intelligence for analysis, said harmful outcomes were not inevitable.

“It is not beyond the mind of human beings, or political systems, (or) in some cases (the) working of market mechanisms to address and alleviate if not solve these problems,” Fingar told reporters. “We could have a better world in 2025.”

China and India, following a “state capitalism” economic model, were likely to join the United States atop a multipolar world and compete for influence, the report said.

Harmful outcomes may not be inevitable. However, China is a wretched autocracy where the vast majority of the people still live in the 19th century, and the rest are trying to get into the 21st on the cheap. India is at least a democracy, and while an educated Indian is almost always the guy for the job, its the other 900 million or so who aren’t ready for prime time yet. Raise your hand if your’re ready to drive a Tata. Heck, raise your hand if you want to sit in traffic next to one. Then, there’s are the wild cards.

Russia’s potential was less certain, depending on its energy wealth and internal investment. But Iran, Turkey and Indonesia were also seen gaining power.

A world with multiple power centers has been less stable than one with a single or two rival superpowers, and there was a growing potential for conflict, the report said.

Let’s see. China, India, Russia, Iran, Turkey, Indonesia. You don’t say. At least the anaylsysts have a sense of humor:

Global warming will be felt, and water, food and energy constraints may fuel conflict over resources.

Either that or they don’t know about this. “Planet has cooled since Bush took office.”

Topics: America, elsewhere

  Posted by Jules Crittenden at 10:19 pm on Thursday, November 20, 2008

4 Responses to “Great News!”

1. Fatty Bolger Says:
   November 20th, 2008 at 11:27 pm

   The next 20 years are always fraught with risks.

2. sarah rolph Says:
   November 21st, 2008 at 8:32 am

   Yeah, “fraight with risks” is a pretty safe bet.

   But what the heck do they mean by “The next 20 years of transition to a new system….” ???

3. RebeccaH Says:
   November 21st, 2008 at 2:34 pm

   So. What’s different from the last five or six thousand years?

   These analysts didn’t seem to take into very much account the advance of technology, renewable energy, or space exploration. And it’s there (space exploration and exploitation) that America may lose if we don’t revive our interest.

4. Uncle Ralph Says:
   November 22nd, 2008 at 10:25 pm

   Just think, the 16 year-old Scotch I shall be enjoying twenty years from now hasn’t even been bottled yet. And what about that good five-cent cigar this country really needs?

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