Everything Old
Is new again, plus some things borrowed, some things blue, a little naivete and hopefully some things that will work for this blushing war bride, as Obama prepares to walk down the aisle with an Afghan strategy announcement. FOX sneak preview kicks off the links:
President Obama will announce the deployment of 4,000 additional U.S. Army troops to Afghanistan on Friday, part of strategy senior officials say will merge increased military efforts with a massive diplomatic push there and in neighboring Pakistan.
“Our focus is first and foremost on those who threaten the United States of America,” a senior official said, referring to Al Qaeda and Taliban forces that now reside in unknown locations in Pakistan.
“That strategy is to disrupt, dismantle and defeat Al Qaeda, its associates and destroy their safe havens,” another senior official said during a White House briefing in advance of the president’s speech. “This strategy is a strategy, it’s not a straightjacket. It’s designed to be flexible. We will re-asses as we go along.”
Separately, the administration has won an as-yet-unannounced commitment of forces from France to increase training of Afghan police forces.
No deerhunt without an accordion.
Admin sources are claiming a “fundamental shift” in close contacts with both the Paks and Afghans, plus lots or economic and military aid to Pakistan, plus a buildup of the Afghan Army. Sounds awfully familiar, but the difference re the Paks is a bigger focus on economic aid.
“All of this, of course, is going to have to be done in a way in which we are ensured that Pakistan will take the appropriate measures against militancy, terrorism, and insurgency,” one official said. “We’ve made that very clear in our conversations with the Pakistanis.”
I’m sure they nodded and gave the same assurances they gave Cheney.
WSJ with a little more detail notes Obama admins focus on building more effective local, provincial governments, cites a shift from Bush admin’s focus on letting Karzai do it. I thought Obama wasn’t interested in nation-building, just nation-securing. Should be interesting.
The new strategy is notable for the emphasis it places on Pakistan, which senior officials now see as critical to determining whether Afghanistan stabilizes or continues its downward spiral. The U.S. has given Pakistan more than $10 billion since the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks on the U.S., mostly in military assistance. As part of its new strategy, the Obama administration plans to instead give Pakistan at least $1.5 billion a year in economic development aid and other nonmilitary forms of assistance.
White House officials hope the money will be used to create jobs and fund construction projects in Pakistan’s lawless tribal region, areas that currently provide havens to the militants who cross into Afghanistan to carry out attacks.
There’s that “hope” word again … a bit of a longshot when it comes to shoveling money into corruption-plagued third world countries. The baksheesh approach to getting the Paks to be useful has been tried with some sporadic success, two steps forward, one step back, but rather than simply buying the military, Obama is aiming at a more broad-based bribe, this time funneling development money into the tribal areas. A buyoff of the Waziri tribes. Interesting idea. Could work. Unless it ends up being a direct subsidy to the Taliban and al-Qaeda.
Here’s a thought. How about paying the Paks to dismantle ISI? An extra, I dunno, $10 million or so for every ISI al-Qaeda sympathizer who ends up dangling from a newly developed utility pole in the tribal areas.
The economic aid will be accompanied by additional American strikes on militant targets inside Pakistan. U.S. and Pakistani intelligence officials are currently drawing up a fresh list of terrorist targets for Predator drone strikes.
Sounds great. Except for that ISI problem. Speaking of which, AP: Afghan intel chief accuses Pak intel agency of aiding Taliban attacks. Again. Back to WSJ:
The U.S.-led NATO mission in Afghanistan has been a source of increasing friction within the military alliance. In response, Pentagon officials are firming up plans to redraw the balance of power between the U.S. and NATO in Afghanistan, according to three military officers familiar with the deliberations.
The idea getting the most support calls for a U.S. military command in southern Afghanistan, the officers said. It would be led by a two-star American general.
Most of the American reinforcements are being deployed to the south of the country, a Taliban stronghold that is one of the largest opium-producing regions in the world. U.S. and NATO officials believe that the drug trade provides the Taliban with billions of dollars of funds each year.
The Obama administration hopes to undercut the Taliban by launching a new counter-narcotics offensive in the Helmand River Valley and other parts of southern Afghanistan. The mission will be the primary focus of the U.S. reinforcements.
Under the plan, U.S. or Afghan troops will first offer Afghan farmers free wheat seed to replace their opium crops. If the farmers refuse, U.S. or Afghan personnel will burn their fields, and then again offer them free replacement seeds. A senior U.S. military official described the approach as a “carrot, stick, carrot” effort.
Good luck with that. Better kill some drug dealers, too. Make that a lot of drug dealers. Disrupting trade routes and infrastructure will make opium unprofitable, though burning crops on a regular basis will have that effect. Here’s a thought, as long as we’re throwing billions worth of baksheesh around. Wheat subsidies. Buy off the farmers so they end up with more than just some dumb carrots. That’s what the Taliban is doing. Also, buy off the Taliban foot soldiers some road-building, power grid jobs. So they end up with an actual economy.
NYT: Obama will be setting “benchmarks” for the Afghan and Pak governments to adhere to.
Although the administration is still developing the specific benchmarks for Afghanistan and Pakistan, officials said they would be the most explicit demands ever presented to the governments in Kabul and Islamabad. In effect, Mr. Obama would be insisting that two fractured countries plagued by ancient tribal rivalries and modern geopolitical hostility find ways to work together and transform their societies.
Is it just me or does it sound like he’s new to this? NYT goes on to suggest others have thought of this before, but Obama really, really means it this time. Notes that he is banking on some unlikelihoods like the Paks reorienting from India to Afghanistan, and Russia and China being useful. Cruelly notes he is avoiding calling his surge a “surge.” That’s 4,000 trainers on top of the 17,000 combat troops already enroute, by the way, which NYT notes isn’t too far off Bush’s surge level.
Well, I hope it all works. A lot of lives depend on it, and a lot will be spent in the process.
Look for the actual news some time after the announcement, as particulars of the tug of war between generals vs. pols becomes clearer. Meanwhile, Fred Kaplan at Slate and Andrew Exum at Small Wars warm up the strategy announcement with discussions of heavy, expensive counterinsurgency vs. cheap, light counter-terrorism ops, whether there is in fact a dichotomy and whether the Obama admin wonks get it or not.
Topics: Afghanistan, Obama
Posted by Jules Crittenden at 11:03 pm Comments (4) on Thursday, March 26, 2009
4 Responses to “Everything Old”
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March 26th, 2009 at 11:13 pm
Four thousand? What happened to the promised seventeen thousand?
Mr. Obama would be insisting that two fractured countries plagued by ancient tribal rivalries and modern geopolitical hostility find ways to work together and transform their societies.
More community organizing, I suppose.
As for weaning Afghan farmers away from opium crops, why don’t they introduce biofuel crops? It’ll be good for a few years, at least.
March 26th, 2009 at 11:45 pm
That’s reportedly 4,000 trainers on top of the 17,000. Clarified in copy above.
March 27th, 2009 at 1:19 am
I am certain that we will all be regaled with stories about how brilliant this “new” strategy is since it allegedly involves getting the attention of the Pakistanis through favors while addressing the issues in Afghanistan. Don’t quite see how this meshes with the furious criticism of GWB for securing the support of Musharraf (sp?) in order to fight the GWOT — oops! That doesn’t exist anymore!
March 27th, 2009 at 9:34 pm
Who is advising Obama on Afghanistan and Pakistan, the Mullah’s?
Someone needs to find out.