No Happy Ending …
… Not without a lot of pain. Iranians were shouting from the rooftops and dying in the streets for the man they say was voted in. The other man chosen by the mullahs. Reasonable people can disagree about whether President Obama should be saying more, doing more, or whether he should have had a realistic approach to Iran in the first place. But he is right when he says it is for the Iranians to resolve. Do they want a government selected by mullahs, and a nation dictated to by mullahs? Or do they want a free government. Is Mousavi, before or now, the “reformer” possibly radicalized as things have evolved, the one who can give them what they want? And do they have the will to do what they have to do if in fact freedom is what they want. Because that will get ugly, and bloodier, before anyone gets a happy ending. And the odds are very much against anyone getting one. Getting free is a dirty business, and those who do the heavy lifting stand to carry a heavy burden.
Here’s the guy who says he speaks for Mousavi. UK Guardian.
Here are four scenarios. One of them is entitled “Happy Ending.” That’s funny, sad kind of funny. I was mulling the prospects for “No Happy Ending” in Iran before I saw that, and I don’t see anything in that list that looks like a realistic shot at national happiness without a great deal of trauma and bloodshed. That list’s “Happy Ending” is the one in which the world turns upside down, the mullahs back down, throw Ahmadinejad under the bus, and call a new election, Mousavi wins, there is peace with America and everyone lives happily ever after. That one is based not only on great unlikelihood but makes some faulty assumptions and overlooks a lot of unhappiness that would continue. Starting with, from an international perspective, the fact that the mullah regime that has sought to dominate the region with terrorism, proxy wars and nuclear weapons. Never mind the misery and isolation they have brought on their own people.
Roger Cohen, NYT, with a view on the streets of Tehran. “City of Whispers.”
“Silence will win against the bullets,” says one banner.
The odds must still be against that.
So today theoretically will be a critical day, after threats from Ayatollah Khamenei in his bully pulpit … novel literal application of that metaphor on both counts, “bully” and “pulpit.” Maybe a day in which we see which way Iran will go. Waiting on news, should be coming in before too long due to the time difference.
Cohen who pretty much has owned the street reporting on this thing: A Supreme Leader Loses His Aura as Iranians Flock to the Streets:
TEHRAN — The Iranian police commander, in green uniform, walked up Komak Hospital Alley with arms raised and his small unit at his side. “I swear to God,” he shouted at the protesters facing him, “I have children, I have a wife, I don’t want to beat people. Please go home.”
A man at my side threw a rock at him. The commander, unflinching, continued to plead. There were chants of “Join us! Join us!”
Sounds like the kind of thing revolutions are made of. Cohen thinks the mass dissing of Khamenei is significant.
Ledeen at PJM sets it up: “So Now It’s Saturday in Iran.”
NYT: Tension Rises in Iran as Both Sides Gird for Demonstration.
WPost: Iran offers partial recount, police deploy.
Reuters: Iran rally to go ahead.
BBC: Crackdown warning and mixed reports on whether it will go ahead. That’s a general link and a good place to check as the day proceeds.
Here we go.
NYT: Police Clash with Protestors
Guardian: Running updates carry reports of tear gas, deaths. Lots of vid and art.
Memeorandum’s got your news, comment and liveblogging. Commentary at RealClearPolitics.
Hyscience, with some graphic, violent vid. “They are killing people here.”
More at HotAir and Malkin. via Gateway, “Please pray for us.”
Surber looks at Obama … “Deer in the Iranian Headlights.”
Steyn: “Neutrality isn’t an option. You always have a dog in the fight.”
Goldberg at NRO’s The Corner …suicide bomber at Khomeini’s Tomb, so whose idea was that? I’m going with someone who has had it with the mullahs, or mullahs trying to turn this into something else, sort of like Khamenei’s crocodile tears at the pulpit on Friday. Then there’s Option 3: who knows?
Piece of Work in Progress: What you can do.
Powerline: “Something unprecedented in Iran, a revolution that you can watch … in real time.”
Neptunus Lex: How long can the security forces man the barricades to prevent the people from peacefully assembling?
Driscoll: “Hell Up In Tehran.” Yeah, well, you have to go through hell if you want to get out of it.
Topics: Iran
Posted by Jules Crittenden at 9:11 am Comments (4) on Saturday, June 20, 2009
4 Responses to “No Happy Ending …”
Leave a Reply
Trackback URLYou must be logged in to post a comment.
June 20th, 2009 at 12:49 pm
[...] has a grim-sounding report on the news trickling out of Iran today. Or as Jules Crittenden puts it, “No Happy Ending.” Filed under: The Future and its Enemies, War And [...]
June 21st, 2009 at 9:09 am
This won’t end well for anyone, especially Obama.
He’s gone from “I Won” to “I Ran”, and lots of folks have taken notice.
June 21st, 2009 at 11:43 am
I doubt that those people are fighting and dying for Mousavi per se. They want freedom, and freedom does not include mullahs hand picking candidates for high office, or anybody with a title like “Supreme Leader.”
Will they get it? I don’t know, but I do know that when enough people are willing to lay down their lives for freedom and democracy, there is a chance they will get it. I also know that no authoritarian government can withstand such an assault on their authority without a serious escalation of violence.
Predictions are impossible at this point because we don’t know how far each side will be willing to go. Revolutions can sometimes have unintended consequences as well, but I like the odds in this case. The Iranian people have been pushing for a true democracy for over a decade now, and if this regime folds I think they stand a good chance of getting it. I just watched a video of a woman dying in the streets after apparently being shot by police or militia. Let’s hope that she will be remembered as one of the first heroes of a new republic, and not a martyr to a lost cause.
June 21st, 2009 at 8:42 pm
[...] Still, it is not easy to watch what the Mullahs in Iran are doing. But it’s worth watching, if for no other reason than as a reminder that our own freedom was dearly-bought as well and that liberties surrendered are never cheaply redeemed. [...]